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Turtles Research
More thoughts on two stocks I own

More thoughts on two stocks I own

And some interesting tidbits on the trade war.

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IJW
Apr 13, 2025
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Turtles Research
Turtles Research
More thoughts on two stocks I own
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First some interesting tidbits I found in the past few days:

  • Half of US imports from China (over $200 billion worth) are done by Chinese importers that are largely free of legal consequences of being caught. And predictably they are aggressively cheating. edit: May not be that reliable of a source though.

  • More on how they cheat here.

  • 12 ways Chinese will cheat on imports. Will be interesting to see if Trump is going to crack down on Chinese importers.

  • Why the 90 day deadline is completely unrealistic. Took over 2 years to negotiate USMCA alone in Trump's first term. And over 8 months to get an agreement with South Korea on autos and steel. While having far more leverage back then. And more competent people, unlike the human centipede that is the current Trump administration. Many key positions in USTR have not even been filled yet. And will likely go to incompetent Trump ass kissers.

  • Speaking of competent people, current administration is in sore need of more people like Gary Cohn:

  • European tourism to the US is free falling, despite a weaker dollar:

  • Interesting tweet on second and third order effects of tariffs plus this bar chart:

  • Another interesting chart:

Continue to think that Trump will keep folding. I don’t think he has a choice. He will nuke the US economy otherwise. Question is, how can he do it without losing too much face? US recession is a near certainty and wouldn’t touch any US company still floating on inflated Covid margins.

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