Serica Energy

Revisited, now with capital returns

This write-up will be short as this is not a very complicated idea. I was in this stock at double the price 2 years ago. Sold it for a small loss as they were not returning capital and large windfall taxes were piled on. Currently though the story seems to have changed, natural gas is still scarce in Europe with currently skyrocketing prices and the company is returning large amounts of capital and is trading at about 3x 2025 earnings with a rock solid balance sheet.

I think the odds of further tax increases and regulatory headwinds are low. In fact there is a decent chance that the outrageous windfall tax will be lowered somewhere in the next 3-4 years as there has been a large flight of capital from EU O&G investment and sky high energy prices in Europe.