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They have several apps in teh Chinese app store. Nobody I spoke to here in China has ever used them. Seems suspicious.

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Sep 9, 2023·edited Sep 9, 2023Author

Yeah another red flag is that they pay suspiciously low taxes. Usually a sign of fraud as well, as taxes paid are public.

It seems they are doing the same thing people on TikTok are doing:

https://www.agorapulse.com/blog/how-to-sell-on-tiktok/

Except they do it on their own app? I think they are a sort of online homeshopping network. It would make more sense if they did what they did on a major social media site instead of their own app.

This is their Chinese website:

http://gsmg.co/

I found an interview with the CEO here:

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1672178385757328953&wfr=spider&for=pc

This website has some history, it appears the CEO started out as a program maker for television, turning around at least 1 television station about a decade ago. And even co produced several large movies.

https://www.163.com/ent/article/DDVTBPU700038HKK.html

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What's their average roe?care to share

Also what's the management doing to close the discount?

P s honestly think ukraine was caught unaware in 2022 hoping for some peace after Crimea/2014.

Georgia on the other hand seems already on high alert especially after 2008 loss of territory..considering the heavy cost of fighting for Ukraine since 2022 I strongly suspect intense backlash for the next invasion (even if they are able to forge an alliance with another power)

But then my guess is as good as yours.

WW3 will hopefully be avoided this decade.

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Source is TIKR:

https://imgur.com/hSMZcvy

Yeah I don't think another invasion is likely, but still not beyond the realm of possibilities. Georgia is much weaker than Ukraine.

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What is halyk management doing to close the discount?

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What is the average roe like?

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did a bit of research . Although on a 10 year average roe basis ,Halyk is definitely the clear winner vs Bank of Georgia .Add to it the delicious dividend payouts since 2010+p/eof about 2 and one cannot be faulted for wanting to buy halyk with both hands.

What however genuinely irks me is the fact that not too long ago (2021) Halyk proposed a buyback at usd 16 per share and none since while the share price seems to be languishing at 12.85 . Meanwhile the competition with Kaspi(the darling of my portfolio) cannot be expected to be easy .

In comparison BOG has been doing both consistently and is even buying back the GDR s as we debate this.

would love to know your view .

p s all data from morningstar

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rechecked the figures it is p/e of 3 for a 25% grower

that is conducting buybacks and increasing divvies

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Considering your position in halyk Bank on the basis of undervaluation

I honestly wonder what you'd think about bank of georgia and its child georgia capital

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It is cheap too, but Georgia is more exposed to potential invasion risk from Russia. The stock isn't as cheap, and underlying business is similar to Halyk. Halyk trades at 2.5x PE and 18% dividend yield. So I rather buy more Halyk.

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Would highly urge you to look at the AVERAGE 20% plus roe for the last ten years vs the sub 10 times p/e

(Please please correct me if I’m getting it wrong)

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Sep 28, 2023·edited Sep 28, 2023Author

I am not saying it is a bad stock to hold, just that HSBK is superior. It has superior historical ROE, superior growth and trades at a cheaper multiple. And has higher payout yield. While being less exposed to potentially another one of Putin's special excursions.

Don't forget that about 20% of Georgia has effectively been taken by Russia already. They are in a similar place as Ukraine was before 2022.

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What's their average roe?care to share

Also what's the management doing to close the discount?

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Considering your position in halyk in the name of undervaluation

What would you say about bank of georgia which has a 5 year average roe of 25%, p/e of about 4 and a buyback +increased dividend?

(I'm currently researching it's 2018 spinoff georgia capital)

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Thanks for the interesting posts. Partly off topic but I see 111 drifted back in after extension (?) of the buy-out consortium in July, and the YSB IPO that you mentioned previously has done rather well. So hopefully some kind of positive resolution there soon on a business w fewer curiosities?

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Yeah I added at around $2.7. Major position for me. I think something will get done here.

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