I think that if China is overrun by Delta or Omicron they will have to accept it and stop the zero covid. Their vaccines seem to work pretty well and treatments are also available so I do not worry too much for China, they just need to at some point forget zero covid.
Tessenderlo is very cheap indeed. I hesitated to buy some, or Picanol.
It seems range of outcomes has become very wide, and China being overrun very probable. No natural immunity vs 30-50% natural immunity in EU and US. No antivirals like Paxlovid for another year. Vaccine efficacy of only 50-60% vs 90%+ in West.
I don't think they can easily forget zero Covid without much better vaccine and antivirals. It will cause major loss of face after zero Covid has been a central theme in Chinese propaganda. And how it makes China better than the West. So they will probably go to extremes first before abandoning it.
I could very well be wrong, odds just don't look good to me. And I still have plenty of exposure to all this.
Food for thought as always.
I'm curious, do you by chance have a public email?
You mean my personal email? Or a substack email?
Either, any email where people can contact you with comments that they find too embarrassing to mention in a public forum.
Sold off my Consun as well today. I want to hold more cash, I have a feeling some real bargains could be created in coming months.
I think that if China is overrun by Delta or Omicron they will have to accept it and stop the zero covid. Their vaccines seem to work pretty well and treatments are also available so I do not worry too much for China, they just need to at some point forget zero covid.
Tessenderlo is very cheap indeed. I hesitated to buy some, or Picanol.
It seems range of outcomes has become very wide, and China being overrun very probable. No natural immunity vs 30-50% natural immunity in EU and US. No antivirals like Paxlovid for another year. Vaccine efficacy of only 50-60% vs 90%+ in West.
I don't think they can easily forget zero Covid without much better vaccine and antivirals. It will cause major loss of face after zero Covid has been a central theme in Chinese propaganda. And how it makes China better than the West. So they will probably go to extremes first before abandoning it.
I could very well be wrong, odds just don't look good to me. And I still have plenty of exposure to all this.