I think they are preparing for a private placement, just a hunch. They have a sizable minority interest claim that basically functions like debt.
If they can grow in 2025, stock is still cheap. The real win will come if they merge with another large distributor though. I think instant profit margins of 2-3% can be unlocked, which would mean stock is probably worth $40-50. I reduced my position in half for now after it had run up from doubling down at $4.5 in January.
Good points, no arguments. PP would be great. I trimmed as well but more of an accident as I moved shares to IRA after margin increase at IB. It's so strong, esp when market is weak. Seems set for another run but yes I agree it's a good time to trim for 2 reasons: 1) the run from Jan RS has been uncanny (tho it just seems like a correction of the Dec decimation in perspective) and 2) the lack of volume leaves it open to huge pullback vacuums. Actually those reasons don't seem that compelling put into context. Run to $20 doesn't seem out of question - this is just technically speaking though.
I think margin improvement + indication of further margin improvement cause the rise. I think it spiked on the cc call. Add in 10-20% revenue growth and those $20-30m EBIT estimates for 2025-2026 suddenly don't look so unrealistic.
Not sure it is cheaper. I have given up on trying to better predict earnings. Analyst estimates say $3-500m in net income in coming 2 years, so not all that cheap on earnings.
Get well soon!
Feel better! Can you drop your twitter handle if you're on there? I shared your link but can't rem your handle, might already follow you.
Thoughts on YI? Call me crazy but this is starting to look like a real company now, from last ER:
$71mm cash a/o 12/31/2024, 2024 CFFO = $36mm. $86mm mkt cap @ $10
https://ir.111.com.cn/2025-03-20-111,-Inc-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2024-Financial-Results
I think they are preparing for a private placement, just a hunch. They have a sizable minority interest claim that basically functions like debt.
If they can grow in 2025, stock is still cheap. The real win will come if they merge with another large distributor though. I think instant profit margins of 2-3% can be unlocked, which would mean stock is probably worth $40-50. I reduced my position in half for now after it had run up from doubling down at $4.5 in January.
Good points, no arguments. PP would be great. I trimmed as well but more of an accident as I moved shares to IRA after margin increase at IB. It's so strong, esp when market is weak. Seems set for another run but yes I agree it's a good time to trim for 2 reasons: 1) the run from Jan RS has been uncanny (tho it just seems like a correction of the Dec decimation in perspective) and 2) the lack of volume leaves it open to huge pullback vacuums. Actually those reasons don't seem that compelling put into context. Run to $20 doesn't seem out of question - this is just technically speaking though.
If they grow and show serious profitability, shares easily go to $15-20 imo.
I think part of the run is market manipulation to run up shares before pp. Look at those huge volume buys at end of day in the past week or so.
I didn't hear mention of the debt due in December - or was that the "rescheduling of payments?"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740750-111-inc-yi-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript
I think they can pay that off out of their cash reserves.
Ahh hence so bullish, relative to raising money. Just a little worried this rally is more a product of holiday volume, hope we get some follow thru
I think margin improvement + indication of further margin improvement cause the rise. I think it spiked on the cc call. Add in 10-20% revenue growth and those $20-30m EBIT estimates for 2025-2026 suddenly don't look so unrealistic.
surprised you're a seller of LU - it's still a lot cheaper than others (NOAH, FINV). Wouldn't now be the time to add?
Not sure it is cheaper. I have given up on trying to better predict earnings. Analyst estimates say $3-500m in net income in coming 2 years, so not all that cheap on earnings.