I also felt the urge to reduce China exposure a bit when tensions building while those stocks are still holding up.
re: OLN
(I don't have a position atm, but have been in and out the stock the past year)
I was impressed by how Q4 (and Q1 23 outlook) really was seemingly "priced in". If they will truly generate $1bn of FCF in "recessionary conditions", and spend most of it on buybacks... then this thing is beyond doubt cheap.
But I guess everybody is still sceptical of this. Is it really different this time? Did OLN really "break the cycle?"
One thing I'm always curious about is: they quickly ramp down capacity and will run factories at 50% utilization when necessary. How easy is it to ramp up and down? What about the employees?
Yeah good points, the main reason I am skeptical as well. Why didn't the previous CEO think of this? If it is really as simple as lowering supply.
Also not a big fan of buybacks here. Seems like the CEO is gambling that he is right? He owns $12m worth of shares and his compensation at least in 2021 was $10m. Would be better to pay down debt and pay a dividend.
"Russia will likely steadily be ground down in Ukraine and that could cause China to help. The West’s strategy seems to be to to slowly cook the Russians alive"
Unless Girkin is THE ultimate reference, he is just another drop in the ocean.
Also anyone who challenges the narrative is labelled with one of the these three emotionally charged rhetorics:
- sexual offender
- racist
- anti-semite
As far as I'm concerned, they lost their flavour and can't prevent me from exercising critical sense.
If Ritter is too much I suggest:
- Brian Berletic
- Larry Johnson
- Alexander Mercouris
- Seymour Hersh
Having a truthful assessment of the situation on the ground is essential to make clear and informed decisions.
I enjoy reading your substack when it comes to business and finance, a gem.
That being said I feel compelled to correct you on matters where I am more knowledgeable. Please don't take it as an offense, I have no skin in the game (I'm North African).
Hey sure, one of the only people that where public about the lie of Irak having WMD is suddenly charged with a crime. How convenient.
The same happened to Assange if I recall. Anyhows, whatever you wish to believe.
Americans/westerners are the most propagandized demographic on the face of the earth. And the best thing is? They are not even aware of it.
Please take the time to review the other people I've sent you. In the mean time I will look into Igor Girkin and form my own opinion.
Please continue your writing, I enjoy your content and I always learn a lot from it. I do not wish to antagonize anybody, simply having a civil discourse.
Well that was absolutely perfect timing on Tegna LOL:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3940866-tegna-plunges-21-after-fcc-orders-designation-hearing-for-standard-general-sale
Beximco is on the LSE, you can buy them with any broker, degiro for example and I guess IBKR
I also felt the urge to reduce China exposure a bit when tensions building while those stocks are still holding up.
re: OLN
(I don't have a position atm, but have been in and out the stock the past year)
I was impressed by how Q4 (and Q1 23 outlook) really was seemingly "priced in". If they will truly generate $1bn of FCF in "recessionary conditions", and spend most of it on buybacks... then this thing is beyond doubt cheap.
But I guess everybody is still sceptical of this. Is it really different this time? Did OLN really "break the cycle?"
One thing I'm always curious about is: they quickly ramp down capacity and will run factories at 50% utilization when necessary. How easy is it to ramp up and down? What about the employees?
Semper Augustus had a small write-up in the latest annual letter: https://imgur.com/a/aoYqLIv
Yeah good points, the main reason I am skeptical as well. Why didn't the previous CEO think of this? If it is really as simple as lowering supply.
Also not a big fan of buybacks here. Seems like the CEO is gambling that he is right? He owns $12m worth of shares and his compensation at least in 2021 was $10m. Would be better to pay down debt and pay a dividend.
"Russia will likely steadily be ground down in Ukraine and that could cause China to help. The West’s strategy seems to be to to slowly cook the Russians alive"
Is this what people in the US really believe?
Well Girkin surely seems to believe in it.
Not sure who Girkin is, but for a more sober assessment of the situation (and where it might be headed) check what Scott Ritter has to say.
If you don't know who Girkin is, I don't think you should have an opinion on this subject.
And a RT propagandist and convicted pedophile like Ritter who is clearly on the payroll of the Kremlin can be safely ignored.
Unless Girkin is THE ultimate reference, he is just another drop in the ocean.
Also anyone who challenges the narrative is labelled with one of the these three emotionally charged rhetorics:
- sexual offender
- racist
- anti-semite
As far as I'm concerned, they lost their flavour and can't prevent me from exercising critical sense.
If Ritter is too much I suggest:
- Brian Berletic
- Larry Johnson
- Alexander Mercouris
- Seymour Hersh
Having a truthful assessment of the situation on the ground is essential to make clear and informed decisions.
I enjoy reading your substack when it comes to business and finance, a gem.
That being said I feel compelled to correct you on matters where I am more knowledgeable. Please don't take it as an offense, I have no skin in the game (I'm North African).
If you don't know who Igor Girkin is you are almost certainly not more knowledgable on this subject.
And Ritter is a convicted pedophile, he spent several years in prison:
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna45049386
So clearly this ruined his career and now he is shilling for the Russians. He has written for RT, which is a Russian state propaganda outlet.
Hey sure, one of the only people that where public about the lie of Irak having WMD is suddenly charged with a crime. How convenient.
The same happened to Assange if I recall. Anyhows, whatever you wish to believe.
Americans/westerners are the most propagandized demographic on the face of the earth. And the best thing is? They are not even aware of it.
Please take the time to review the other people I've sent you. In the mean time I will look into Igor Girkin and form my own opinion.
Please continue your writing, I enjoy your content and I always learn a lot from it. I do not wish to antagonize anybody, simply having a civil discourse.
Best,