You think Toya will be bought out? My fear with Toya is further deteriorating margins and then some lowball buyout. Makita and SWK both forecasted to have greatly reduced margins in the coming years. With little to no revenue growth.
It wouldn't surprise me. When growth slows down, larger companies look to acquire growth. But I don't count on it. Margins will bounce around, but Toya has consistently generated net income and posted gross margins better than their more developed world competitors and it's just very cheap for a company operating in a stable, very mildly-cyclical business.
I'll also point out that one of the things I really like about the basket of polish stocks I own is that managements appears not to game shareholders with options and grants. Look at the S/O on Toya in the last 5 years.
how do you like eqnr, as a better-run version of petrobras (even some offshore block commonality) but with less pressure risk from brazilian politics? [noted, they are not slowing renewables, and although a very competent operator, the non-fossil IRR is a mystery]
weirdly, they are both trading at SOME of the same valuation metrics.
Petrobras is a lot cheaper. And mostly oil, so not overearning as much as Equinor.
Norway has 25% dividend withholding tax, vs 0% for Brazil. In 2023 and 2024 I will probably get back 30-40% from Petrobras of my original purchase price. Vs about ~20% for Equinor.
not sure its cheaper on all metrics (e.g, 5yr. ROA, buyback yield, etc...) but this is not just a debate about favorite metrics; petrobras has more real\perceived risk for assets 100% controlled by petrobras, not to mention the history of incompetent appointees in the c-suite.
also, eqnr has become probably the most critical low cost supplier of energy to mainland europe, and likely to continue as such if\when the russian war subsides.
regarding tax, all my foreign tax withheld is generally recouped within 1-2 years via mostly automated tracking in tax software.
Yeah good points. But neither stocks are really compounders. The bet with PBR is that I get back most of my money in dividends in next couple of years. And maybe a small rerating. I think the damage management can do this time around will be more limited. So the sizable premium of EQNR valuation is too large to justify holding it for me, despite superior management.
And I don't like EU gas, too unpredictable. Who knows how Europe will adjust long term? And what demand or supply will be. Gas can very easily become stranded. Demand is much more flexible than oil. Oil seems a bit more predictable in the medium term due to it being a global commodity with more inelastic demand.
So in my mind I am getting PBR.A at a 2-3x PE at normalized commodity prices, while I am getting EQNR at a 5x PE at elevated commodity prices.
Although EQNR does not look like a bad hold here, I just prefer PBR.A.
Probably split your PBR.A into 50/50 PBR.A and EC.
Unfortunate timing on TIM. Wurth launching a tender offer at 50.69 Pin with management support. I think you are going to regret reducing Toya as well.
Yeah that was painful lol.
You think Toya will be bought out? My fear with Toya is further deteriorating margins and then some lowball buyout. Makita and SWK both forecasted to have greatly reduced margins in the coming years. With little to no revenue growth.
It wouldn't surprise me. When growth slows down, larger companies look to acquire growth. But I don't count on it. Margins will bounce around, but Toya has consistently generated net income and posted gross margins better than their more developed world competitors and it's just very cheap for a company operating in a stable, very mildly-cyclical business.
I'll also point out that one of the things I really like about the basket of polish stocks I own is that managements appears not to game shareholders with options and grants. Look at the S/O on Toya in the last 5 years.
how do you like eqnr, as a better-run version of petrobras (even some offshore block commonality) but with less pressure risk from brazilian politics? [noted, they are not slowing renewables, and although a very competent operator, the non-fossil IRR is a mystery]
weirdly, they are both trading at SOME of the same valuation metrics.
Petrobras is a lot cheaper. And mostly oil, so not overearning as much as Equinor.
Norway has 25% dividend withholding tax, vs 0% for Brazil. In 2023 and 2024 I will probably get back 30-40% from Petrobras of my original purchase price. Vs about ~20% for Equinor.
not sure its cheaper on all metrics (e.g, 5yr. ROA, buyback yield, etc...) but this is not just a debate about favorite metrics; petrobras has more real\perceived risk for assets 100% controlled by petrobras, not to mention the history of incompetent appointees in the c-suite.
also, eqnr has become probably the most critical low cost supplier of energy to mainland europe, and likely to continue as such if\when the russian war subsides.
regarding tax, all my foreign tax withheld is generally recouped within 1-2 years via mostly automated tracking in tax software.
Yeah good points. But neither stocks are really compounders. The bet with PBR is that I get back most of my money in dividends in next couple of years. And maybe a small rerating. I think the damage management can do this time around will be more limited. So the sizable premium of EQNR valuation is too large to justify holding it for me, despite superior management.
And I don't like EU gas, too unpredictable. Who knows how Europe will adjust long term? And what demand or supply will be. Gas can very easily become stranded. Demand is much more flexible than oil. Oil seems a bit more predictable in the medium term due to it being a global commodity with more inelastic demand.
So in my mind I am getting PBR.A at a 2-3x PE at normalized commodity prices, while I am getting EQNR at a 5x PE at elevated commodity prices.
Although EQNR does not look like a bad hold here, I just prefer PBR.A.