Say they then sell another $1bn worth of assets for 8.5x EBITDA, adjusted net income would be $700-750m 1-2 years from now.
If I can sell my spinco shares for 7x EBITDA, then at a 11-14x multiple including about 5% capital returns (buybacks and dividends in 2025) upside by this time next year would be 20-65%. And Debt/EBITDA would be 3.3x by this time next year.
I think best move here is to buy a small position, and add after spinco drop
So post spin, BERY will get $1 billion in cash + 90% of the spin-off. They lose $290 million in EBITDA. But the combined entity will have between $380-455m in EBITDA. And BERY management values spin off entity at a $3.6 billion valuation with $2 billion in debt. BERY holders will own 90% of that and BERY will receive a $1 billion cash distribution.
This means they value the $290m we will lose at 8.5x. ($3.6 - $2) * 0.9 + $1 = $2.44 billion and divided that by $0.29.
Currently BERY trades at 7-8x EV/EBITDA. So about $2-3/share in upside if this plays out + owning a now higher quality lower levered BERY.
A lower margin Glatfelter with more leverage traded at around 9-10x EV/EBITDA before 2024.
Say post spin shares decline 50% from management expected valuation. That means only a 6x EV/EBITDA valuation. This would mean $3-5 in downside if that happens.
The problem is, as spinco declines, BERY might actually increase as it will now have higher growth and higher margin assets.
Yeah I did some more thinking and I think I will also wait. I sold on Friday. Assumed it was neutral to +ev, now I think it is neutral to somewhat -ev to hold through the spin.
The spin off still needs to happen, right? What do you think about buying before or after?
Say they then sell another $1bn worth of assets for 8.5x EBITDA, adjusted net income would be $700-750m 1-2 years from now.
If I can sell my spinco shares for 7x EBITDA, then at a 11-14x multiple including about 5% capital returns (buybacks and dividends in 2025) upside by this time next year would be 20-65%. And Debt/EBITDA would be 3.3x by this time next year.
I think best move here is to buy a small position, and add after spinco drop
Ok I deleted last reply, I did make mistakes lol
So post spin, BERY will get $1 billion in cash + 90% of the spin-off. They lose $290 million in EBITDA. But the combined entity will have between $380-455m in EBITDA. And BERY management values spin off entity at a $3.6 billion valuation with $2 billion in debt. BERY holders will own 90% of that and BERY will receive a $1 billion cash distribution.
This means they value the $290m we will lose at 8.5x. ($3.6 - $2) * 0.9 + $1 = $2.44 billion and divided that by $0.29.
Currently BERY trades at 7-8x EV/EBITDA. So about $2-3/share in upside if this plays out + owning a now higher quality lower levered BERY.
A lower margin Glatfelter with more leverage traded at around 9-10x EV/EBITDA before 2024.
Say post spin shares decline 50% from management expected valuation. That means only a 6x EV/EBITDA valuation. This would mean $3-5 in downside if that happens.
The problem is, as spinco declines, BERY might actually increase as it will now have higher growth and higher margin assets.
Let me know if I made any mistakes.
I decided I'll just look at it after the spin ;)
Yeah I did some more thinking and I think I will also wait. I sold on Friday. Assumed it was neutral to +ev, now I think it is neutral to somewhat -ev to hold through the spin.